Are you an expatriate living in the Netherlands and wondering if now is the right time to buy a home? Navigating the Dutch property landscape can be challenging, especially with constantly changing interest rates and prices. Whether you are looking for a family home in Utrecht or an investment apartment in Rotterdam, understanding the future trends is crucial.

In this post, we dive deep into the house market outlook for late 2025 and 2026. We analyze the latest data to help you make informed decisions about your future in the Netherlands.

The Current State of the Market (November 2025)

Before looking ahead, we must look at where we stand today. As of November 2025, the Dutch housing market remains dynamic. Despite some earlier predictions of a crash, prices are steadily climbing.

Data shows that transaction prices in November 2025 were 1.4% higher than in October. Even more telling is the year-on-year comparison: prices are 5.7% higher than they were a year ago. While the number of transactions dipped slightly in November, the overall trend points to a market that is active and competitive.

Why are prices still rising?

You might wonder why prices keep going up despite global economic uncertainties. Several key factors are driving this trend:

• Structural Shortage: The Netherlands is dealing with a housing shortage of over 300,000 homes.
• Increased Borrowing Power: Wages have risen for many households, increasing the maximum mortgage amount they can secure.
• Stabilized Interest Rates: Mortgage rates have settled, giving buyers more confidence.

House Market Outlook for 2026

What can we expect for the coming year? If you are planning to buy or sell, the House Market Outlook for 2026 suggests a continuation of current trends, albeit at a slightly calmer pace.

Financial institutions paint a clear picture. The Dutch Central Bank (DNB) expects price increases of approximately 4% in 2026. Similarly, Rabobank predicts a rise of over 5%. ABN AMRO warns that the market will remain tight due to lagging new construction projects and persistent demand.

In short, the market is not crashing. Instead, it is stabilizing into a “new normal” where prices rise moderately rather than explosively.

Regional Differences: Not Everywhere is the Same

For expats, it is vital to understand that the Dutch housing market is not one single entity. There are massive regional differences. Location is becoming more important than ever.

The Heating Regions

The pressure remains highest in the Randstad and surrounding areas.

• Utrecht: This city continues to be a hotspot. Overbidding is common here, with buyers paying an average of 6.82% above the asking price in late 2025.
• North-Holland: Cities like Amsterdam and Haarlem remain scarce and expensive.
• Gelderland: The Arnhem-Nijmegen region is performing strongly due to high demand.

The Cooling Regions

Conversely, other areas offer more breathing room.

• Zeeland: This province is seeing less inflow from Randstad buyers compared to the COVID-19 years. Overbidding here is much lower, averaging just 2.12%.
• Limburg & Groningen: These areas are showing signs of stabilization, with some municipalities even seeing slight price dips.

For expats willing to look outside the major cities, there are significantly more opportunities and less competition.

Mortgage Rates and Affordability

A major component of the House Market Outlook is the cost of borrowing. Fortunately, volatility has decreased. Since the autumn of 2025, mortgage rates have fluctuated within a narrow bandwidth.

Currently, the average interest rate for a 20-year fixed period with NHG (National Mortgage Guarantee) sits around 4%.

While this is higher than the historic lows of 2021, it offers stability. Furthermore, the NHG limit is set to rise in 2025. This provides buyers in the middle segment with more security and often a lower interest rate. Additionally, lenders are increasingly looking at the energy label of a home. Buying a sustainable home can actually increase your borrowing capacity.

Advice for Expats in 2026

What does this House Market Outlook mean for your personal strategy?

Tips for Buyers

• Be Prepared: Speed is essential. Ensure your financing is approved in principle before you view homes.
• Look Beyond the Ring: If your budget is tight, explore regions outside the Randstad where the market is less overheated.
• Check Energy Labels: Sustainable homes are not only cheaper to run but can also grant you a higher mortgage.
• Buy New: Consider new build projects (Nieuwbouw). Although they take longer to complete, they are energy-efficient and require no bidding wars.

Tips for Sellers

• Presentation Matters: Buyers have become more critical. Ensure your home is well-maintained and styled correctly.
• Energy Efficiency: improving your energy label before selling can significantly boost your final sale price.
• Timing: With the shortage persisting, it remains a seller’s market, especially in popular cities.

Conclusion

The House Market Outlook for the Netherlands in 2026 is one of cautious growth. The days of double-digit price explosions may be over, but a price drop is not on the horizon. The shortage of homes combined with increased borrowing capacity keeps the floor under the market high.

For expats, the key to success lies in preparation and realistic expectations. Whether you are buying or investing, staying informed is your best asset.